Pelosi's "Crumbs" Mean Lowest Unemployment Claims Since 1973

Donald Trump

Job growth amounted to a decent 164,000 last month, up from an upwardly revised 135,000 in March, the Labor Department said Friday.

A development that would leave American President Donald Trump elated - the unemployment rate in the U.S. has fallen to 3.9 per cent in April, the lowest since 2000.

"The populations that are filling those jobs will tell us something about what we should expect in terms of wage growth", Barrera said.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases a monthly report which breaks down labor market trends like employment growth.

Employers nationwide report the pool of available workers is drying up, forcing many to raise wages to attract qualified candidates. The "all jobs" year-over-year percentage change is now +1.6%, with services at +1.7% and manufacturing, +2.0%.

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) was essentially unchanged at 5.0 million in April.

Average hourly earnings rose four cents, or 0.1 per cent, last month after gaining 0.2 per cent in March.

The average monthly increase in total USA employment through the first one-third of this year has been +200,000. "Still, the potential for labor-force participation to increase as workers re-enter the workforce provides some additional supply that isn't necessarily apparent in the unemployment rate".

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To the typical person on Main Street, the idea of full employment usually means everyone in the country is working, which would imply a jobless rate of essentially zero. Although there have been ups and downs over that same period, the employment figures have remained between 1.13 million and 1.14 million since December 2016. The Dow Jones industrial average, S&P 500 index and Nasdaq composite opened moderately lower after the jobs data, but the major market indexes staged a midmorning rally, fueled by Apple (AAPL). Teachers unions in various states (e.g., Arizona) have been in the forefront of fights for higher wages, among other issues.

Despite the numbers, last month's growth paled in comparison with the average monthly gain of 191,000 jobs over the past year.

The continuing decline in unemployment amid tepid wage pressures serves as a stark signal to labor economists, and Fed policy makers, that the neutral level of the unemployment rate, or NAIRU, is considerably lower than in the past several economic cycles-and furthermore, is likely lower than the Fed estimated as of the March Summary of Economic Projections (4.5 percent).

- "The April employment report delivered a downside surprise for payrolls and threw a wrench into the recent wage momentum story".

Within services, the sub-sectors with the biggest bursts in employment in April were: "professional and business services", +54,000 jobs; "education and health services", +31,000; and "leisure and hospitality", +18,000. Eight years ago, the jobless rate was 10 percent. An acceleration could force Fed officials to raise rates more aggressively, which would raise the cost of vehicle loans and credit card debt.

The lowest unemployment rate the US ever achieved was 1.2 percent in 1944.

For Democrats running on the economy for the 2018 midterm elections, claiming the "crumbs" that came with the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act à la Nancy Pelosi have not helped blighted business and poverty-stricken citizens, get ready for a bit of a blunder.

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