BoE: Mixed messages - Deutsche Bank

BoE: Mixed messages - Deutsche Bank

The preliminary estimate of the U.K.'s GDP growth in the first quarter was 0.1 percent, 0.3 percentage points lower than expected in February, the bank said. The publication, originally scheduled for July 26, has been cancelled and moved to August 10, eight days after the Bank publishes its rate decision and updated forecasts.

"The Committee's best collective judgement therefore remains that, were the economy to develop broadly in line with the May Inflation Report projections, an ongoing tightening of monetary policy over the forecast period would be appropriate to return inflation sustainably to its target at a conventional horizon", it said in a summary of the MPC's meeting.

Most economists polled by Reuters expect the BoE to vote 7-2 to keep rates on hold this month and not raise rates until August.

Mark Carney's window to raise interest rates before Brexit is closing.

The slowdown in the first three months of the year was one of two reasons why the Bank stayed pat.

While the decision not to raise rates will be welcome news to those about to buy a home or remortgage it will be less well received by savers with funds languishing in savings accounts that can't beat inflation.

Alongside the decisions, the Bank of England also released its quarterly Inflation Report, providing an update on its economic forecasts, predicting that the United Kingdom economy will grow at average of around 1.75% over the next handful of years.

Speaking at the press conference upon the release of the report, governor of the BoE Mark Carney added: "The underlying pace of growth remains more resilient than headline data suggests".

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'Despite the welcome agreement on a transition period, the terms on which the United Kingdom will trade with the European Union and beyond that period remain to be determined.

'As negotiations progress this year, the medium term outlook will become clearer'.

The bank made no change in its forward guidance, with the MPC's statement reiterating that it expects Bank Rate to rise. "Thou shalt not imperil economic growth" suddenly seems much more important than worrying about reining in inflation", said the FEXCO dealer.

How the Bank now sees inflation playing out over the next three years. It particularly affected construction, Carney said.

For the two dissenters on the MPC - Ian McCafferty and Michael Saunders - the case for an immediate rate rise had not changed, given the "temporary or erratic" first quarter growth data.

"Given the recent weakness in consumer credit and the housing market, there was somewhat greater-than-usual uncertainty about the near-term momentum in consumer spending and the extent to which households would adjust their spending and saving to the past fall in their real incomes", the minutes said.

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